Dead Men Walking

[Lummox3]

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Quote:The title of this piece sums up how I feel about the current credit markets. When I first started in the industry in 1981 we were worried, but only about one company -the Chrysler Corporation. Prior to that, Continental Illinois was in the forefront. Later in my career, in 1998, it was Long Term Capital Management, the hedge fund founded by John Meriwether that captured our attention. Then we had Enron/WorldCom, and by early 2008 Bear Stearns became a worry and then a problem that needed fixing.

All of these events were isolated, dealt with, often with either direct assistance from Uncle Sam or an effort coordinated by our benevolent/socialist government financial authorities. Markets would become unnerved, fear would grow, and then the Government would step in to make sure that the systemic risk that had finally come to the surface didn't melt the entire planet.

But this is where it is "different this time". Not only is it different, I think it may be unprecedented in nature. When I look at my Bloomberg monitor each day that contains my 100 most important indices, companies, commodities, bonds, bond spreads, preferred shares, etc, I shudder. The reason I shudder is that my screen doesn't have just one "problem child". It looks like a screen that contains many "dead men walking".

Death by hubris.

[eye2i2hear]

With due apologies if this is a bit of a rabbit trail from the intended point, but something this writer says reminds me of something I've had sweeping around in my cranial innernet  off and on for awhile.  The author says: "I think it may be unprecedented in nature." 
What is meant by "nature" of course is a bit subjective.  If my hunch is correct, in context it's subject is primarily a U.S. perspective, granting further of course that what goes with the U.S. goes with "the world" (ie "the global economy").  But how subjective is this "world"?  What I'm getting at is considering for example, comparing the U.S. world of the 21st century with the U,K. world of the 18th century?  For the Old World (contrasted with the New World) wouldn't it pretty well've been that what went with the U.K., went with the world?  Is the once New World U.S. now The Old World Redux?

More precisely, what I'm wondering about is if for the banksters (pronounced "gangsters")-- for the financiers --the U.S. is presently what the U.K. was to them then?  Perhaps it takes a bit of the proverbial back-smoke-filled-room embracing precisely here; I dunno.  I'm inclined to buy into that parable as being reality based.

I often think of the "deal" that is in the movie Trading Places.  If you saw that, you'll recall that the Duke Brothers (Mortimer & Randolph) were filthy rich.  They were big time commodities brokers (in the NY Stock Exchange).  Where having all the money you could spend lent to finding amusement value in social manipulation (money meets philosophy as entertainment).  The Duke brothers, during one of their members-only-back-room-cigar-smoking-gatherings made a wager on two individual's lives (the worlds played by Eddie Murphy & Dan Aykroyd)-- the issue (the nature versus nurture argument) being highlighted as to Their nature by that wager being for a mere $1 bill. 
The wager, being amusing and humorous in the movie's case (not to mention Jamie Lee Curtis' frontal being full-filling), but I wonder if there isn't at least a tinge of reality captured therein?  If we think of the likes of the Stanford Prison Experiment, might this be a prospective play on another aspect of that human nature?  What might control freaks with the prosperity of world financiers (the bganksters, find enjoyable?  What might make such personalities happy?  Or "feel right"?


I've often wondered if this was precisely what was played out in 20th century Germany as well?  (did anyone else connect the "Fatherland Security" with "Homeland Security"?  and didn't Germany start as a republic, morph to a democracy, and during economic despair morph to a dictatorship?  with invasions of "sovereign nations" in the mix... along with allegations of "empire building"...) 

Is it possible that for the world financiers, the U.S. and China are The Duke Brother's next $1 wager now that the U.K. and U.S. wager has completed?


Obviously, nothing likely provable here; and equally for us, little to be gained.  I just wonder if others might have had the thoughts?  (perhaps it's misery loves company...)
Here's to hoping- if it be the case -that the "patsies"/"subjects" Louis Winthorpe III & Billy Ray Valentice figure out Mortimer & Randolph's fun & games in the parallel world, like it worked out in the movie... (but sadly it's not looking too favorable)

[NonEntity]

eye2i2hear Wrote:Is it possible that for the world financiers, the U.S. and China are The Duke Brother's next $1 wager now that the U.K. and U.S. wager has completed?

...

I just wonder if others might have had the thoughts?  (perhaps it's misery loves company...)

Nope.  Not zacktly.  But I have NOW!  :frown:

- NonE

[eye2i2hear]

NonEntity Wrote:Nope.  Not zacktly.  But I have NOW!   :frown:

- NonE

Hey, don't be using those ALL caps with me young man!

'Sides, it's partly YOUR fault; so Save Your Tears....  8)

[Lummox3]

I'm going to go out on a limb here and say "most free place wins economically, socially and politcally"

China, Russia and so on are all moving the other way, because of the collapse of communism in the old soviet region and boredom with it in china. The west is going down the scary totalitarian path as things stand. Some see this as a reaction to bad events, not many are seeing that it's the creeping totalitarianism that is causing all the other problems.

Sadly, the answer for most problems to the population is statism. This makes things worse so they ask for still more statism, and then things get worse - a death spiral.

I think Stefan Molyneux calls it "hitting bottom" and I fear that's exactly what is going to occur.

As to the trading places thing, I think that the banker are out of luck this time. Only it's not Eddie Murphy and Dan Ackroyd waving at them, it's Premier Hu and Vladimir Putin.

[eye2i2hear]

Lummox3 Wrote:As to the trading places thing, I think that the banker are out of luck this time.

Which was an excellent prompt for a question I've also found:
a.) are there banksters in China?  Russia? 
b.1) are they international banksters?  b.2)  are they possibly the same international banksters (and is their proof either way)?
and c.) how does banking (or better, finance?) work in China/Russia, say contrasted with London/New York=FedRes?  fiat too?  fractional?

On all three counts, I plead: ignorant (which is a synonym of "citizen")  8)

Quote:Only it's not Eddie Murphy and Dan Ackroyd waving at them, it's Premier Hu and Vladimir Putin.

To save (or anticipate a) NonE a post here, Lummy you left out who is Jamie Lee Curtis...  

[Lummox3]

The chinese government has high reserve banking (17.5% last time I checked), and the death penalty for trying to mess with the system. They have 1Trillion+ US $ owed to them by the US government as well as other assorted other currencies as a backstop, lots of gold and a hell of a lot of other metals of all kinds.

Russia are very suimilar but smaller scale. They also have the main gas pipeline that feeds europe - and they are currently annexing Georgia to acquire more oil and gas, sorry I mean "helping their Ossetian brothers."

They are not the same banksters in China and they only have a partial hold in Russia from what I can gather since Yeltsins time (they paid for Yeltsins coup, where the white house was stormed and the russian parliamentarians forced out at tank-point.) Certainly Putin is not shy about arresting, deporting and so on people who in the western corporate world are untouchable. (Recently threw the head of BP out of the country, for example.)

Basically, in those parts of the world, the bankers don't run things, they are kept under a tight leash. Fiat, yes, fractional yes but again, continuing the earlier theme - less fiat and bigger fractions. it's that old black magic again - those closest to the basic principles of economic do best. Right now, and it's sad to say this, the east is closer than the west in a lot of things that matter economically.

[eye2i2hear]

eye2i2hear Wrote:Is it possible that for the world financiers, the U.S. and China are The Duke Brother's next $1 wager now that the U.K. and U.S. wager has completed?

Continuing on this wonderland romp...
injin LummoxIII had me off "pound"ing this £ rabbit trail which turned up this:

Quote:
Prior to World War I, the United Kingdom had one of the world's strongest economies, holding 40% of the world's overseas investments. However, by the end of the war the country owed £850 million, mostly to the United States, with interest costing the country some 40% of all government spending.

---http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pound_sterling

And who is a major debt holder of the U.S. presently?

Quote:At the end of 2005, China, with $820 billion in such assets, was the second-largest holder of U.S. debt after Japan, which held about $10 billion more.

---tokyo.usembassy.gov/e/p/tp-20060221-22.html
???

(I suppose one sterling silver lining to all this, is as Lummox evidences, amidst all such Nation and empire jockeying, individuals carry on...)

[and why isn't this £ this #... or vice versa...]

[Lummox3]

Aye.

The trouble is the flow of goods and dollars. Goods have been flowing into the US and dollars flowing out for decades.

This puts US at something insane like 80% idependant on mports for it's goods. This will stop overnight at some point in the next two years, then reverse and that will mean hyperinflationary depression while the whole thing sorts itself out, as well as state failure (yippee*) financially and a lot of other unpleasant stuff like martial law, curfews, shortages of essentials riots, strikes, rounding up dissidents and so on.

Hard not to think that the Chinese and others haven't planned it this way. Harder still not to think that the "elite" didn't just go along with it for the free stuff and power the inevitable correction would secure for them.

Oh well, as has been said elsewhere - "Do what you can and leave the rest for life to sort out."








*not getting too excited, the silly sods will just build another one.

[NonEntity]

Lummox3 Wrote:...idependant on mports...

Been studying martian dyslexia again, Lummox?

- NonE  :biggrinblue:

[Lummox3]

Awww

Bugger.

:biggrinblue: